The Latino Question-Blog

 It may not have been as apparent to everyone as when the great civil rights activist Hubert Humphrey spoke out to the Democratic National Convention in 1948 which secured the African-American vote. It is not as calculated as ‘Nixon’s Southern Strategy’ to win over disillusioned whites in the American south. But now and into the future, there has been another seismic shift in U.S politics and the country sits at a crossroads.

Why is this? Because of hard statistics. Every year, for the next 20 years, between 500,000-600,000 Latinos turn 18 in America. In a decade they have been estimated to make up a quarter of the electorate. This group is growing exponentially, while the white vote is shrinking.

 This is an issue because Latinos have been aggressively pushed away by the Republican Party and brought in (to an extent) by Democrats. The first signs of this shift were shown in this election with the politically southern and conservative swing state of Virginia going to Obama, effectively with the new Latino vote.

 The most liberal Candidate Mitt Romney, to get the nomination, castigated Texas Governor Rick Perry for giving education to illegal immigrants and said he favoured immigrants ‘self-deporting’ themselves. The hard-line Republican Governor of Arizona also introduced the most controversial anti-immigration legalisation-HB 1070. Come Election Day, the Latino vote was 71% for President Obama and 27% for Governor Romney- down from 40% (W. Bush) and 31% (McCain). Radio host Rush Limbaugh says they voted Democrat for ‘gifts’, Fox News anchor Bill O’Reilly says they ‘want stuff’. The break between the two groups is almost a chasm.

On the face of it, this alienation makes no sense. Latino voters traditionally have conservative views religiously on issues like abortion. But what they vote on is for their self-interest not their views on abortion. What this means is they all want a path to immigration for illegal aliens and to have universal health coverage. Therefore only one party represents their interests. With the Republicans running out of ‘angry white men’, the picture looks dire. Even if they front their ticket with Marco Rubio, this would not solve their problems because:

1)      1) He is Cuban-American, if it’s only him, how can he connect with Mexican-Americans in Texas? or Puerto-Ricans in New York?

2)      He may hold traditional Latino views on abortion but doesn’t hold the views on which Latinos vote.

At the current rate Democrats could dominate for the foreseeable future, as they did from FDR to LBJ. It says everything that the Democrats’ keynote speaker at this year’s DNC was a rising star, Mayor of San Antonio and Latino- Julián Castro. One party has more than just figureheads for Latinos; it talks to them as the hard-working people that they are. It is in sync with their principles.  Perhaps most scary for the right is that Castro predicts in 6-8 years Texas could turn Democrat. If they can win Texas with California (definitely) and Florida (as in 2012) in future elections, they will have 45% of the electoral votes needed to win from three states. If the Latino vote isn’t tapped into, when do the Republicans ever get elected?

Like ‘48 and ‘68, one of the U.S political parties has a massive choice to make, become more conservative or change their views and embrace the massive Latino vote. So politically, to paraphrase New Hampshire’s motto, the question is: Embrace Latino voters or Die

Le nouveau président!- The Demon (21 May 2012)

On Sunday 6th May 2012, France elected the socilaist candidate Francois Hollande, by a small margin, over the incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy.

 Thus France now has its first socialist president since Francois Mitterand in 1995. The issue is that, along with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and fellow centre-rightists, Sarkozy has headed severe austerity measures across Europe.

 Gone is the Sarkozy ban on the burka, as Hollande was elected on a mandate on prioritising ciil liberties. As a traditional socialist, Hollande has made promises to pull French forces out of Afghanistan and increase the rights of same-sex couples. In addition as a traditional socialist he has stated his wish to raise the top level of tax for those earning a million euros a year to 75%.

 This result has to be considered in relation to other states in Europe, with countries like Greece rejecting parties for austerity, and rallies in Spain against such measures.

 Similarly, with the UK’s coalition suffering heavy losses there appears to be a power shift across Europe away from the centre-right which has failed to deliver growth, apart from in Germany.

 However, the downside of this election is the crisis of the single currency across Europe, which has been intensified by the uncertainty in the market that has arisen with the ‘Merkozy’ partnership broken.

 It is likely that economic difficulty will continue for the foreseeable future, precipitating the break-up of the euro, with Spain and Greece probably being the first countries to exit.

 As Greece is continuing to fail, comically lurching from government to government, and Hollande to visit Germany on the 15th, the trouble in Europe should become clearer, in its outcome in the coming weeks.

Local elections swerve towards Labour-The Demon (21st May 2012)

In the local elections on the 4th May 2012, the coalition government were expecting to lose seats, but didn’t expect Labour to win 823 councillors and gain control of 22 councils.

Even when Ed Miliband was egged by a protester, while celebrating victory in Southampton, the smile wouldn’t leave his face. Tories lost a huge 405 and the Liberal Democrats lost a relatively large 336 seats. The Labour Party won their seats across Britain, even winning significant gains in the south-east, which is traditionally a Tory stronghold. In addition the Labour party also showed an increased standing in Wales and Scotland, despite the pressure from the Scottish National Party.

 Whilst mid-term voting tends to always go against the sitting government, this result has been combined with a worsening economic climate and Britain once again going into recession. Importantly for the government and its mandate of austerity, this represents the first double-dip recession since the economic turmoil of the 1970s.

 However the importance of this result has to be weighed up against the voter turnout. Across the country this was around 32% and with even less voting in the government’s favourable mayoral elections in cities such as Coventry, Nottingham, Manchester and Leeds. All of these cities rejected the proposal of having a mayor and of the biggest twelve cities, only three voted to have or keep an elected mayor. Therefore this result does not represent a Labour party returning to power, as the next general election is still scheduled for May 2015, and two years of politics have yet to unfold.

 In London, the trend of the country was broken with the Conservative Boris Johnson winning re-election in a close contest with Labour candidate, and former mayor, Ken Livingstone. With that Livingstone signalled the end of his political career, and to further antagonise the Conservatives described Boris as ‘the next Tory leader’

 So while the result has to be taken with a pinch of salt, the local elections may serve to invigorate the Labour party around Miliband and certainly highlights an interesting narrative towards May 2015. 

Demon Article- Wednesday 2nd May 2012

Bubba Watson wins classic at the 2012 Masters

Unconventional, down to earth and wearing his heart on his sleeve, Gerry ‘Bubba’ Watson came from nowhere to win a play-off for the championship.

Immediately he was surrounded by his mum and fellow American golfers. He couldn’t contain his tears, warmed the heart of everyone watching, even leading to tears from non-golf watchers. The fact that most of the watchers on social media were behind Bubba goes a long way to showing how significant this moment was.

Watson has a back-story that seems to be from of a Hollywood film. He has never had a Golf lesson and on the urging from his father, plays however he wants. This was shown in his shot from the trees which effectively won him the Masters. However Bubba’s life has been through a turbulent time, especially in the last 18 months. First Watson’s father died from throat cancer, which is one of the reasons that he has a bright pink driver, to raise money and awareness for charity. Then Watson had to spend months going through the draining process of adopting a child, due to his wife being unable to conceive.

This was shown at the Masters when until the last day, Bubba’s main concern was going back home to his newly adopted boy. He was never talked about when the tournament started but hung in at the top, despite the consistent brilliant golf being played by the leader Louis Oosthuizen. Then when he won, he couldn’t contain his emotions when winning and when the presenter talked of his father and child to him.

Sport on the whole has a poor reputation in today’s world, with all the analogies of greed. But for a man to have been through all that, done it his way and come out the other side with a green jacket, shows the brilliance of sport. To be watching in the early hours of the morning, to see a man who “never dreamed this big” win this championship was nothing short of incredible.

Demon Article- 19th March 2012

US Presidential candidate Romney wins Ohio

Mitt Romney wins Ohio; Fox News claims if he does then he gets the Republican nomination to run for President.

However, because he only just wins it, the ‘Race’ between himself, Rick Santorum and assorted others crawls on. There is now widespread talk of another candidate throwing his hat into the ring; from Jeb Bush (brother of George W.), to Sarah Palin (who refused to rule out the possibility).

 The problems with the candidates however are numerous to voters in the U.S.

Romney, being a Mormon, scares many Christians, is a weak speaker and lacks charisma compared to Obama. His attempts to show himself as an ordinary man have failed miserably- he fielded a question on whether he liked the hugely popular Nascar with: “No…but I have friends that own Nascar teams”.- hardly playing to the crowd.

Santorum is the biggest challenger to Romney but his radical catholic views have led to P.R disasters. Santorum once described a child born of a woman’s rape as a gift, and has infuriated gay rights campaigners with his views on gay soldiers in the armed forces.

Of the others running ; Ron Paul is the most consistent but can’t win because of his anti-government views, Newt Gingrich has been shedding supporters ever since revelations about his private life surfaced.

Despite being just behind both Romney (42% v 48%) and Santorum (44% v 45%), The winner of this situation is currently Barack Obama.

This is because the economy is slowly recovering under Obama, creating 227,000 net new jobs in February 2012. However if the crisis in the Euro-zone deepens and the price of oil continues to rise, Obama’s position will look considerably weaken in November than it does in March.

Demon Article- Monday 19th March 2012

Indian legend and 2^nd highest run scorer in test cricket announces retirement from international cricket

 On Friday 9^th march 2012 Rahul Dravid brings down the curtain on an outstanding career that lasted almost 16 years.

Statistics sum up the enormity of the man; 10,8889 ODI runs, 210 test catches (a record) in 164 tests and 13,288 runs at 52.31.

He also faced 31,258 balls in test matches, giving him the nickname ‘The Wall’ because of this solidity.

 But statistics only show half the story, when it comes to Rahul Dravid. He was the clichéd team man, prepared to do the spadework to make others prosper and get the headlines. Whilst Tendulkar refused to move from number 4, Dravid kept wicket and batted every position from 1-7 for India. Make no mistake he wasn’t graceful mostly, he effectively out fought his opponents in sheer power of will. This was shown last year in England when he scored 3 centuries (no other Indian scored one) and single handily fought England, whilst his more elegant teammates crumpled in a pathetic heap.

Lara, Tendulkar, Ponting and Kallis will go down as better players but Dravid will always be mentioned in the breath. This is because Dravid worked harder than any other sportsman. He is humble to his achievements and destroyed the idea Indians weren’t mentally strong enough to prosper outside the sub-continent. To many Indians Friday felt like a day of mourning but the mark of Dravid as a human being is that all over the world (and especially in England) he is equally revered. 

Demon Article-Monday 13th February 2012

Rewind to mid-2010, India are playing Sri Lanka at the SSC in Colombo. Sri Lanka score 642-4 declared and in response India score 707 all out. Geoffrey Boycott would describe this kind of a pitch as so rubbish his grandmother could have scored a century with a stick of rhubarb.

The test ends in a laughable draw and the late legendary cricket writer Peter Roebuck fears test cricket is dying.

Test cricket is supposed to be the ultimate- a ‘Test’ of a player’s physical and mental strength over 5 days, with only the strongest rising to the challenge.

Enter England in late 2010.

They go to play the Ashes series in the graveyard of English cricket- Australia.

The Team are brilliant in everything they do and are heroes back home.

Their mix of ability and consistency routs Australia.

Even more so they play with passion and belief and as a result do their country proud and entertain the public at the other side of the world.

 Panic ensues in world cricket and in Australia especially.

They respond by reviewing their sport and sacking many who are deemed inadequate.

They, through luck or good judgment, stumble on James Pattinson (21) and Patrick Cummins (18!).

Both bowl at over 150kmh (93+mph) and take plenty of wickets with a mixture of pure aggression and a smile. South Africa also find a lightning quick fast bowler of their own in Marchant De Lange and a phenomenon in the slightly overweight Vernon Philander.

 These youngsters bowling fast excite everyone in sport but more than anything they have no respect for reputations.

Cummins works Jacques Kallis, the greatest all-round cricketer in 40 years, into submission. Pattinson outclasses the two batsmen with the most runs ever in Dravid and Tendulkar. He even makes fools of the legendary Virender Sehwag and V.V.S. Laxman (Although at 37 is slightly passed his once best).

This is what great sport needs, rejuvenation and the excitement of not knowing what is going to happen next.

England has brought this to cricket with their Ashes victory and their 4-0 destruction of the suppossed world number 1 team- India.

They have performed a CPR on cricket so effective youngsters all over the country are playing the game and aim to follow in their heroes footsteps and hopefully do their country proud.

To those who don’t like cricket or have never watched it, try again.

England have brought back a sport, which millions in England loved in 2005 and at Headingley in 1981, to it’s former glory.